Georgia Dispatches: The Aftermath
With reports that much of Russia’s military presence in Georgia has been withdrawn, reflection on a serious conflict which threatened to ignite the entire South Caucasus is becoming more and more the order of the day. For whatever reasons, and whoever is to blame, the conflict between Russia and Georgia was the most serious for years. Despite Russian claims of thousands dead, hundreds died in South Ossetia and Georgia proper, and tens of thousands lost their homes in military action reminiscent of the ethnic cleansing which devastated the former Yugoslavia in the 1990s.
Without a doubt, fallout from the confict -- especially as allegations of abusing a truce agreement continue to be levelled at Russia -- will resonate for some time to come. The BBC reports, for example, that while Russian combat troops have pulled out of Georgia proper, other troops under the premise of peacekeeping will remain which potentially allow Moscow to maintain the effective division of the country between East and West thanks to control of parts of the highway around Gori.
Ostensibly a “buffer zone,” questions are now being asked as to what is the real reason for their presence, especially as Russia also intends to remain in the Georgian Black Sea port of Poti.[...]Some international commentators and many Georgians believe that Russia’s continued presence on Georgian soil is to achieve one main goal other than the control of a former Soviet Republic that dared to turn its back on its former rulers Moscow. The goal, they say, is to seek regime change and the removal of the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, from office. But, if that is the case, the plan seems to have backfired. For now, at least, Saakashvili is riding high on a wave of anti-Russian and nationalist sentiment in Georgian society. [...]
Some international commentators and many Georgians believe that Russia’s continued presence on Georgian soil is to achieve one main goal other than the control of a former Soviet Republic that dared to turn its back on its former rulers Moscow. The goal, they say, is to seek regime change and the removal of the Georgian president, Mikhail Saakashvili, from office. But, if that is the case, the plan seems to have backfired. For now, at least, Saakashvili is riding high on a wave of anti-Russian and nationalist sentiment in Georgian society. [...]
In a few months time when the smoke clears, however, it’s anybody’s guess. Known as an impulsive hothead, some real and very difficult questions are bound to be asked as to why the Georgian government responded to months of alleged Russian provocation by attacking South Ossetia and shelling what it claims are still Georgian citizens living in the breakway region’s capital of Tskhinvali. Russian forces were known to be stationed on the other side of the Roki tunnel leading into South Ossetia, so what on earth was going through Saakashvili’s mind.
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